Switch 2 Predicted as the Best Selling Next-Gen Console Despite Not Even Being Out Yet

Gaming market analyst DFC Intelligence predicts Nintendo's Switch 2 will dominate next-gen console sales, projecting 15-17 million units sold in its first year. Let's delve into this forecast. Switch 2: The Projected "Clear Winner"

80 Million Units by 2028?

DFC Intelligence's 2024 Video Game Market Report, released December 17th, positions Nintendo as the console market leader, with the Switch 2 anticipated to significantly outperform competitors Microsoft and Sony. This projection stems from the Switch 2's expected earlier release (rumored for 2025) and a relative lack of immediate competition. The report forecasts sales of 15-17 million units in 2025, escalating to over 80 million by 2028. Such high demand may even present manufacturing challenges for Nintendo.

While Sony and Microsoft are reportedly developing handheld consoles, these projects remain in early stages. DFC Intelligence suggests new consoles from these companies are unlikely before 2028. This three-year head start for the Switch 2 (barring unexpected releases in 2026) secures its leading position. The report further suggests only one of the post-Switch 2 consoles will achieve significant success, highlighting a potential "PS6" as a strong contender due to PlayStation's established player base and strong intellectual properties.

Nintendo's Switch is already making history, surpassing the PlayStation 2's lifetime US sales. Circana (formerly NPD) analyst Mat Piscatella announced on BlueSky that the Switch has sold 46.6 million units in the US, making it the second best-selling console in US history, behind only the Nintendo DS. This achievement is notable despite a reported 3% year-on-year sales decline.

A Resurgent Video Game Market

DFC Intelligence paints a positive picture for the gaming industry, highlighting its 20x growth over the past three decades. Following a period of declining hardware and software sales, the market is projected to experience healthy growth through the end of the decade, with 2025 anticipated as a particularly strong year. This resurgence is fueled by new product releases, including the Switch 2 and the highly anticipated Grand Theft Auto VI, both slated for 2025.

The gaming audience is also expanding, projected to surpass 4 billion players by 2027. The rise of "high-end gaming-on-the-go" via portable systems broadens accessibility, while esports and gaming influencers further drive hardware sales across PC and consoles.